The Perfect Storm: Cuba’s Energy Crisis Could Send Caribbean Resort Prices Soaring for Canadian Travellers

Cuba has long been the crown jewel of the Canadian winter vacation market — an affordable, sun-drenched escape that millions of Canadians have counted on for decades. But a deepening energy crisis on the island, fuelled by a crippling jet fuel shortage, has brought that tradition to an abrupt halt. All major Canadian airlines have now suspended flights to Cuba, leaving an estimated half a million vacant seats in the market and triggering a chain reaction that travel experts warn will significantly drive up prices at competing Caribbean destinations.

What Triggered the Cuba Flight Crisis?

Mexico, which had been acting as a critical oil lifeline for the island, as well as Venezuela, Cuba’s traditional energy partner. With Venezuelan oil deliveries already halted since mid-December 2025 due to prior U.S. measures, Cuba’s fuel reserves began to collapse.

By early February 2026, Havana’s José Martí International Airport was warning that it would run out of aviation fuel. The effects spread rapidly to airports in Varadero, Santa Clara, Holguín, Santiago de Cuba, and Cayo Coco. Air Canada was first to act, suspending all service to the island on February 9 and operating empty southbound flights to retrieve approximately 3,000 stranded travellers. WestJet and Air Transat followed within days. Air Transat formally suspended all Cuba flights through April 30, while the other carriers said they would monitor the situation before deciding on a restart date.

The Canadian federal government escalated its travel advisory for Cuba to “avoid non-essential travel,” citing worsening shortages of fuel, electricity, food, water, and medicine — conditions the government warned could affect resorts as well as everyday Cubans. Rolling blackouts became commonplace, with some lasting more than 24 hours. Ground transportation collapsed, leaving some tourists temporarily stranded with rental cars at gas stations where lineups and altercations became common.

Nearly Half a Million Seats Gone Overnight

The scale of the disruption to Canada’s travel industry is enormous. Cuba had historically attracted well over 860,000 Canadian visitors per year at its peak, making Canada the island’s largest source market by a wide margin. Even with a 33.5% drop in Canadian arrivals in 2025 — down to roughly 173,000 — Cuba still occupied an outsized position in the Canadian package vacation market. Tour operators like Sunwing, Air Canada Vacations, and Air Transat had built their winter product heavily around Cuban resorts.

With all Canadian airline capacity to Cuba gone in a single week, the trade is now grappling with a gap of close to half a million seats for the remainder of the 2025–2026 winter season. Zeina Gedeon, CEO of Travello, described the hole left in the market as enormous. She noted that for March Break especially, availability at alternative Caribbean destinations was already tight and prices were running higher than normal, even before Cuba’s full collapse as a destination.

Why Other Caribbean Resorts Will Likely Charge More

Basic economics are now working against Canadian travellers looking for alternatives. With Cuba effectively removed from the equation, displaced vacationers are flooding into competing destinations — Jamaica, Mexico’s Riviera Maya, the Dominican Republic, Cancún, and other resort-heavy markets in Central America and the Caribbean. Demand has surged precisely at a moment when supply has not expanded to meet it.

Martin Firestone, president of Travel Secure and a widely cited travel industry expert, explained the dynamic plainly. If Cuba remains offline through the next holiday season — including Christmas and the winter peak — other resorts will have the pricing power to charge whatever the market will bear, and they are likely to get it. He went so far as to say that some destinations could charge double their current prices.

The near-term picture is already bearing this out. Reese Morash, co-owner of TravelBug Travel Group, noted that clients who cancelled Cuba trips at the last minute and scrambled to book elsewhere were experiencing significant sticker shock. Travellers who might have expected to pay around $2,000 to $2,500 for a Cuban all-inclusive were finding comparable packages in other Caribbean destinations costing roughly $1,000 more per person.

Nino Montagnese, Vice-President at Air Canada Vacations, acknowledged the pricing shift, noting that hotels use dynamic revenue management systems that automatically push prices higher as inventory sells out. While Air Canada Vacations itself said it had not changed its pricing strategy, the underlying hotel inventory it sells through is subject to market-driven price increases as rooms fill up. The operator moved quickly to add alternate routes — including new departures from Toronto to Montego Bay and from Montreal to Cancún and Punta Cana — to absorb some of the displaced demand.

What Canadian Travellers Should Expect Right Now

For anyone planning a March Break trip or a winter getaway who was counting on Cuba, the message from the travel industry is clear: book early, expect higher prices, and be flexible. Last-minute availability in popular sun destinations is increasingly scarce, and what does remain tends to sit at a premium.

Sunwing and WestJet’s leisure division redirected Cuba capacity toward Roatán in Honduras, Panama, La Romana in the Dominican Republic, and San Andrés in Colombia — markets that may offer more competitive pricing than the most heavily trafficked alternatives like Cancún or Punta Cana, which are already absorbing a large volume of displaced Canadians.

For travellers with existing Cuba bookings, airlines and tour operators have been generally accommodating. Air Transat allowed customers to change their date, hotel, or destination without penalty. WestJet offered flexible rebooking options for all affected flights. Air Canada Vacations introduced a refund policy for scheduled departures. However, travellers who rebook will typically have to pay any price difference, and those switching to pricier markets like Negril or Montego Bay have reported being on the hook for the premium.

Travel insurance also became a critical conversation during the crisis. Martin Firestone noted a surge of calls from people wanting to purchase cancellation insurance for remaining Cuba trips. He cautioned that once a situation becomes a “known cause” in insurance terms, coverage options typically disappear — making early action essential for anyone considering a purchase.

The Longer View: What Happens to Cuba as a Destination?

Even before the 2026 fuel crisis, Cuba’s tourism industry had been struggling. Canadian arrivals declined sharply in 2025, and the island’s overall tourist arrivals for the first nine months of the year fell more than 20% compared to 2024. The infrastructure challenges, food and water shortages, and chronic economic difficulties were already making Cuba a tougher sell for value-conscious travellers.

The current crisis raises serious questions about Cuba’s long-term viability as a mass-market winter destination for Canadians. Tour operators who have managed Cuban logistics for more than three decades are accustomed to operational challenges on the island, but a fuel blockade of this scale is described by industry insiders as extraordinary — qualitatively different from the disruptions of past years.

If Cuban airports and resorts cannot reliably guarantee fuel and power for the upcoming winter season, the economic and psychological shift in the Canadian market could prove lasting. Travellers who discover that Jamaica, Mexico, or the Dominican Republic offers comparable value — or who are simply burned once too often by Cuba’s unpredictability — may not return.

For Canada’s travel industry, and for the millions of Canadians who made Cuba their winter home away from home, the coming months will be telling. One thing travel experts agree on: for now, the perfect storm of collapsed supply and surging demand means Caribbean resort prices will head in one direction — up.

More Caribbean Travel News